The Republic is a journal published by The Palantir Foundation, featuring commentary and essays on technology, national security policy, and international affairs.

War Transformed

War Transformed

The Battlefield of Tomorrow

By

Mr. Bogden is an associate at White & Case. He was formerly a George F. Kennan Fellow at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Strategy & Policy Fellow at the Smith Richardson Foundation, and a Senior Visiting Researcher at Bard College. Previously, he served as the German Marshall Fund’s Helmut Schmidt Fellow, based in Berlin. He holds DPhil in international relations from the University of Oxford, a JD from New York University School of Law, and a bachelor’s degree in political science from Yale University. He is a Rockefeller Fellow at the Trilateral Commission, a Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of Chatham House and IISS.

Book Review War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict by Mick Ryan, Naval Institute Press, 2022 (312 pages)

Countless texts have recently been added to the growing—some might say bloated—genre pertaining to the influence of new technologies on war. From the battlefields of eastern Ukraine to the confines of the Gaza Strip, the questions these books tackle remain salient in all theaters where states find themselves embroiled in conflicts. Mick Ryan’s book, War Transformed, offers a thoughtful and comprehensive exploration of the changing character of war and competition in the modern era.

Ryan, a retired major-general of the Australian Army and an adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, brings extensive military experience and a deep understanding of modern warfare to the table. His readers benefit from his rigorous application of this background to assess claims about topics—like automation, artificial intelligence, and mechanization—which often inspire hasty conclusions about the impact of current or future inventions.

The central premise of the book is that the key to success in 21st-century warfare lies not solely in the pursuit of the latest technological advancements. Instead, Ryan argues that military organizations should prioritize a combination of appropriate ideas, adaptive institutions, and well-trained and educated personnel.

The emphasis on human factors sets this book apart from many others in the field, offering a refreshing perspective in a technology-centric discourse. One of the book’s strengths is its ability to balance discussions of new technologies with a focus on the enduring aspects of war. Ryan highlights the importance of adapting military institutions to meet the challenges of modern warfare. He introduces the concept of counter-adaptation, which outlines ways to prevent adversaries from adapting to friendly operations. This is a valuable addition to the conversation on military strategy and readiness.

The book also emphasizes the critical role of intellectual development among military personnel—the question of human capital. Ryan advocates for continuous learning and adaptive educational systems to ensure military leaders are well-prepared for the evolving landscape of warfare. He suggests engagement with non-military institutions and the use of speculative fiction as tools for developing plausible futures, anticipating challenges, and developing solutions. Ryan’s critique of hyper-war, a form of conflict where decision-making is entirely automated, is both thought-provoking and timely. He questions the desirability of such a construct, noting that it lacks the ability to fully consider the human implications of strategic decisions.

Throughout the book, Ryan draws on historical and contemporary examples to illustrate his points, making the material accessible and engaging for a wide range of readers, from military professionals to those interested in security studies. Ryan’s recommendations provide valuable guidance for military professionals and policymakers, making this book a significant contribution to the discussion on the future of warfare.

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